Election+2012

Election 2012: President Senate toc Ballot Questions

Where do the candidates stand on the issues?

Candidates and the Issues

=How is the Presidential Race looking right now?=

@http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/

=Economics and The Presidential Election= http://yli-pub-docs.s3.amazonaws.com/Econ_and_Election_2012%20mshs_eng_ver5.pdf.

Activity 1: Play the game! Peaks and Valleys

Form yourselves into groups of two or three and have one person open the following document which has the game pieces in it:

Get some scissors from the front table and cut up the pieces.

Each person in the group will be one of three players: Incumbent Presidential Candidate, Non-Incumbent Presidential Candidate, or Third Party Presidential Candidate. Choose your role or you'll be assigned one. Then take the pile of cards for your selected candidate.

Since we don't have dice, you should use the following website to roll the dice:

[]

Use only 1 die and roll only one time each

Rules of the Game:

1. Each player of the game should choose a “character” to be for the duration of the game. Only 3 people can play this game at a time. Each character has a unique pile of cards you choose from to advance in the game. The character you choose to be for the game determines which pile of cards you choose from for the rest of the game. Also, it is very important that each player of the game choose characters that would represent a real presidential election. For example, one player cannot be the Democratic Incumbent President while another is the Republican Incumbent President.

2. The Incumbent President will always start off the game – if there is an incumbent playing. If not, the person to start off the game will be determined by rolling a dice (The person with the higher number on his/her roll will begin the game).

3. Each time it is your turn, you will roll the dice to determine how many spaces you move forward. Then, draw one card from your pile. The cards will describe a situation in which the state of the economy has influenced your presidential campaign, and can cause your character (and the others) to move forward or backward. Follow the dates on the calendar according to the black arrows.

4. The goal of the game is to beat the others to the end of the board, which represents the result of the Presidential Election on November 6th, Election Day.

5. There are spaces along the board that have separate directions for your character to travel if you land on them. This is where the “Peaks” and “Valleys” become relevant to the game. If you land on a “peak,” then the direction will tell you to advance on the board. If you land on a “valley,” you will, unfortunately, lose many spaces on the board.

6. If a player goes through all of the cards in his or her pile before there is a winner of the game, simply shuffle the cards and continue to go through the pile until the game is over.

Have Fun! You'll have about 25-30 minutes to play the game.

Once there is a winner, let Mr. Hurley know.

The answer the following questions:

//**A) Advantages and disadvantages**// 1) What advantages and disadvantages did it seem that the incumbent candidate had? 2) What advantages and disadvantages did it seem that the non-incumbent candidate had? 3) What advantages and disadvantages did it seem that the third party candidate had?

Who had the most advantages and disadvantages?

Visit 3 links that were listed on the cards (they don't need to necessarily be from your candidates cards) 1) Based upon what you learned in the game and in reviewing the links, who does the current state of the economy favor to win the election on November 6, President Obama, Governor Romney or a third party candidate? Why?
 * //B) Links//**

2) What would need to change in the next 4 weeks to change the outcome for someone else to win the election? Give an example of a hypothetical situation which could swing the election back in favor of another candidate.

3) Do you think there is anything President Obama can do to change the state of our economy? Why or why not? What about Governor Romney or a third party candidate? Why or why not?

The role of Economic Factors on past Presidential Elections:

//**Unemployment:**//

The look at this chart which explains current (as of Oct 2011) unemployment data.

Go to the following website from the Bureau of Labor Statistics to figure out what the current unemployment data is as of it's most recent data collection (September 2012) []

Please note that it will take a little time to go through the data presented on that page. Don't worry about getting into the little details - look at the unemployment rate and how it has changed in the past few months.

//**GDP (Gross Domestic Product)**// - look up what that means if you don't know

//**Presidential Approval Ratings**//

Using the data you've analyzed from the above three graphs, make a prediction about how the economy is currently affecting President Obama's re-election chances.

//**Summary**// Given what you have learned about our economy in the past couple of days, do you believe that President Obama is doomed to lose this election or is there hope based upon other factors besides the economy? Why do you feel that way?

//__**Everyday Economic Indicators**__//

These are all ways that have been used as rulers to measure the strength of our economy:

Baked Bean Sales Indicator The Concept: Consumers move to canned goods to save on food expenses during hard times. The Proof: During 2009, the value of baked beans soared 23% in the U.K. as consumers fell back on the staple instead of going out for dinner.

Coupon Redemption Index The Concept: When the economy slips, consumers turn to coupons in their Sunday circulars to try to cut costs on things like toothpaste, laundry detergent and groceries. In 2009, coupon redemption soared to 3.3 billion uses as consumers looked to save more at the market.

Hemline Index The Hemline Index is a theory presented by economist George Taylor in 1926.Recent research suggests it is valid. The theory suggests that hemlines on women's dresses rise along with stock prices. In good economies, we get such results as miniskirts (as seen in the 1960s),or in poor economic times, as shown by the 1929 Wall Street Crash, hems can drop almost overnight.

Skyscraper Boom Indicator Building booms will precede and then coincide with recessions, particularly when construction of a new tallest building is underway. The taller the building, the longer the crisis. The Proof: Barclays tracks the boom in its Barclays Skyscraper Index, and the results are surprising. During the Great Depression, three of the world's tallest buildings were under construction: 40 Wall Street, the Chrysler building and the Empire State building.

Men's Underwear Index The Concept: Men will forgo purchasing new underwear to save money during hard times. The Proof: True. Even Alan Greenspan is on the bandwagon. Research firm Mintel estimated men's underwear sales fell 2.3% in 2009, the first time since 2003.

Desserts Index Desserts purchased in restaurants decrease when consumers believe that the economy is about to go into a downturn. Another similar indicator tells when the economy is on the rise consumers purchase more highpriced coffees and lattes.

Lipstick Effect The lipstick effect is the theory that when facing an economic crisis consumers will be more willing to buy less costly luxury goods. Instead of buying expensive fur coats, for example, people will buy expensive lipstick. It has been rumored that lipstick sales doubled after the 9/11 attacks on the USA,however, other sources say this is an overstatement. In a New York Times article published May 1, 2008, Leonard Lauder is quoted as saying that he noted his company's sales of lipstick rose after the terrorist attacks. He did not claim they doubled. The underlying assumption is that consumers will buy luxury goods even if there is a crisis. When consumer trust in the economy is dwindling, consumers will buy goods that have less impact on their available funds.

Baltic Dry Index Higher prices for boxes, cardboard and other shipping needs indicates more consumption by consumers and predicts a faster moving economy.

Taxi Index When consumers feel the economy is weak they use taxis less and opt for either public transportation, like the bus or subway or walk to their destinations; but with an economic upswing more people will start to use cabs more frequently.

Golf Index This is the first activity that consumers give up when the economy goes south. A rise in the number of golf reservations can indicate a strong economy may be in hand.

=DEBATE=

Presidential Debates:

Debate watching guide -

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